Minus 7.7%.

That’s the confirmed August reading on the Market Pulse, the steepest on our charts since the 2022 correction, and worse than the −6.1% we projected a month ago. Days on market stretched to 42. And for the first time in 2026 the average Seattle home in our selection closed below its asking price, at 99.2% of list. I warned last month that August belonged to buyers. It did, by an even wider margin than our bearish estimate called for.

The national press caught up mid month, Redfin reported Seattle pending sales fell harder this summer than any major metro in the country, down roughly 16% from a year ago, with the layoff overhang at Amazon and Microsoft doing most of the psychological damage. When the worst month in four years arrives wearing headlines like that, the temptation is to extrapolate the line straight down. Here is why I’m not doing that.

Still Negative, but Watch the Rate of Decline

The leading estimate for September comes in at −5.7%, with days on market in the pending pool improving to about 38 from August’s 42. Neither number is good and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. What interests me is the second derivative. The decline stopped accelerating. In 2022 the trough deepened for four consecutive months before metrics turned, and the current pendings are hinting at a faster floor than that. Our market just had its most aggressive re-pricing since 2022, and although one month of hints is not a trend, I’ll be watching closely to see where we go from here.

The macro offered no help getting here. July’s employment report showed an outright loss of 23,000 jobs with heavy downward revisions behind it. Then on Friday Chair Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to sharpen the inflation warning and put a September hike openly on the table, and the bond market took him seriously within hours. The 30-year fixed jumped to around 6.8% by Friday afternoon, this in a month where long Treasury yields had already touched levels not seen since 2007. With inflation up, a Fed talking itself into hiking while the labor market weakens is a potentially volatile situation as we head into Fall.

The Listing Rules Just Changed, Quietly

One more thing from this week that will outlast this cycle. Compass settled its lawsuit against NWMLS yesterday, and starting Friday, Washington sellers get a new First Look listing status: a true coming soon period of up to three weeks where days on market and price adjustments don’t accumulate on the public record. In a volatile and price sensitive market like we’ve seen this past year, the ability to build early demand without starting the public clock is a powerful tool and can provide valuable insight to Sellers. I’ve known this was coming for a few weeks and we’ve already been working it into launch plans for fall listings. Full breakdown next week. (Update: read the First Look breakdown here.)

Where That Leaves You

Sellers, August punished stale pricing harder than any month in four years, and launch strategy now matters as much as the number on the sign. Talk to me before you list, the First Look status exists for exactly this environment.

Buyers, you’re negotiating at the most favorable numbers of the cycle, and possibly near their floor. Windows like this don’t announce when they close.

September is going to reward those that are prepared whichever side you’re on. If you’re weighing a move this fall, buying or selling, reach out. We’ll sit down, look at your goals and timing against the data, and create a custom tailored plan of action for you.

— Anton