A month ago our internal leading data had July penciled in at −1.9%. It confirmed at +1.2%. The difference came down to one number: sale-to-list. Homes that closed in July went for 100.74% of asking on average, stronger than the rest of the data said they would be. Everything else pointed to a slowdown, days on market stretched to 31, fewer homes went under contract in their first ten days, but when buyers committed, they still paid above list. That is one piece of the picture we can’t see until sales actually close, and in July it carried the whole reading. July showed the demand under this market has a harder floor than the summer slowdown narrative gives it credit for.

That’s the good half of the report.

The Worst Leading Print on Our Charts Since 2022

The contracts signed in July, the ones that become August’s closed sales, project an August Pulse of −6.1%. Days on market in that pending pool are stretching toward 36, and the early pricing signals have gone flat for the first time all year. For scale, a confirmed reading at that level would be the steepest on our charts since the correction summer of 2022.

Could the model be running hot again? It just was. But notice which way the evidence stacks. In July the model was too pessimistic at a moment when inventory was peaking and rates were calm. This August estimate is deteriorating while rates rise, the 30-year fixed hit 6.69% this week, a twelve month high, after the oil driven inflation scare pushed yields up through July.

The Fed held again on Wednesday, but the vote is the story: three members wanted a hike. Three dissents toward raising rates, in this economy, is the committee saying out loud that inflation is winning the argument. Until that changes mortgage rates have a floor under them. And Seattle’s buyer pool, already thinned by two years of tech restructuring, with Microsoft’s latest round of cuts landing just weeks ago, isn’t getting reinforcements from the rate side.

Positioning for a Hard August

Sellers, the next 60 days likely belong to buyers in a way no stretch of 2026 has. If you’re listing this month price ahead of the decline, not behind it. The first reduction a market forces on you costs more than the discount you’d have chosen yourself, and it costs you the clock too. If your timeline is genuinely flexible, given these market conditions, waiting out the fall and relaunching after Labor Day with fresh positioning is a legitimate strategy but there are no guarantees that things will improve by then.

Buyers, this is the leverage I told you in June to get ready for. A −6% leading print with rates at a twelve month high means motivated sellers and quiet open houses, and the deals struck in months like this are the ones people brag about two years later.

September 1st we will confirm our early read. If you’re weighing a move this fall, buying or selling, reach out. We’ll sit down, look at your goals and timing against the data, and create a custom-tailored plan of action for you.

— Anton